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"Dancing With The Stars" Odds Say Kendra Wilkinson Dancer To Beat

Norman Byrd's picture

Some say Kendra Wilkinson will win "Dancing With The Stars" Season 12. Others say actor Ralph Macchio. Some will place a wager on it. People like to gamble, especially on competitions like "DWTS." So who do the professional oddsmakers believe is most likely to win? What are the odds?

Who is going to win the 2011 edition of "Dancing With The Stars"? Many think it could ultimately be the Playboy model-turned-reality show star Kendra Wilkinson. Others think nostalgic favorites like actress Kirstie Alley and actor Ralph Macchio might be the fleeter of foot. And then there are those who are of the opinion that one of the athlete's in this season's competition -- like boxer Sugar Ray Leonard or NFL great Hines Ward -- might dance away the winner. And then there's the hip hop star Romeo, who has the advantage of having once already been on the show (Season 2, forced to leave due to injury). However, as opinions differ and people choose their favorites, some like to wager on a winner. For that, many also turn to the professional oddsmakers, like Bodog, to find out who are the odds-on favorites to win.

For those who think that the 25-year-old Kendra Wilkinson has the upper hand on "DWTS," the oddsmakers concur, listing her at 7/2 odds to go all the way and win the competition. Her professional dance partner will be Louis van Amstel. Given her willingness to wear less than most (she has appeared on or in Playboy five times), much speculation has been given to how little she will wear on the show, providing distraction as a hedge against lack of talent (if such exists).

Kendra Wilkinson's greatest competition? According to oddsmakers, it is a dead-heat tie between Super Bowl XL MVP Hines Ward and "The Karate Kid" (the original) actor Ralph Macchio. Both are sporting 11/2 odds.

Close on their heels are Disney actress Chelsea Kane and world champion boxer Sugar Ray Leonard. They weigh in at 6/1 odds.

Who is least likely to make it to the finale and become the winner of "DWTS" Season 12, at least according to those who have compiled the odds list? It would appear that supermodel Petra Nemcova is least likely to make the entire run, placing at 18/1 odds. However, Nemcova could prove to be a competent or skilled dancer, and she certainly has the sympathetic back story to help propel her forward in the contest, something the show has seen in the past with dancers whose skills weren't up to the level of others, but they remained because they were popular with the audience and voters. Nemcova was nearly killed in the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (her fiance, photographer Simon Atlee, drowned) and suffered a broken pelvis. And "DWTS," like many competition shows where advancement depends on the viewing voters, is nothing if it isn't at least partially a personality contest.

Odds change over time. Since the cast was revealed on ABC's "The Bachelor" on February 28, they have shifted somewhat. Kendra Wilkinson's odds to win remained relatively stable over the intervening three weeks leading up to the season premiere (while remaining the favored, her odds of winning fell from 3/1 to 7/2), but Ralph Macchio saw his odds decrease by two full points (although he still remains second overall). Early on, Macchio was a 7/2. He has dropped to 11/2.

In fact, most have seen their odds to win slide somewhat, with talk show host Wendy Williams and Petra Nemcova showing the greatest decline. Williams went from 7/1 odds at the beginning of March to her present position of 12/1. Nemcova dropped from 14/1 odds to 18/1 (and remained least likely to win).

The celebrity dancer showing the greatest advance was radio talk show host Mike Catherwood, who moved from being tied for last with Nemcova to 15/2 odds, which places him in the middle of the pack. In the three week run-up to the "DWTS" premiere, the popular radio personality seems to have somehow increased his chances of winning. His partner, "So You Think You Can Dance" finalist Lacey Schwimmer, might have had something to do with his positive move on the list.

Regardless, odds become relatively meaningless when the fate of the dancers are in the hands of the voting public, who vote on skill, style, and personality. Democracy rules out. Those with the most votes advance, those with the least get eliminated from the competition.

"Dancing With The Stars" Season 12 (2011) Current Odds (March 21)*

Kendra Wilkinson 7/2
Ralph Macchio 11/2
Hines Ward 11/2
Chelsea Kane 6/1
Sugar Ray Leonard 6/1
Mike Catherwood 15/2
"Lil" Romeo Miller 8/1
Kirstie Alley 10/1
Chris Jericho 10/1
Wendy Williams 12/1
Petra Nemcova 18/1

*(Odds subject to change)

"Dancing With The Stars" Season 12 kicks off in Los Angeles on Monday evening, March 21, at 8:00 p.m. EST. The popular ABC reality dance contest will present its latest line-up of paired dancers, which were announced on March 2 on "Good Morning America," where each will perform either a foxtrot or a cha-cha-cha, thus beginning the ten-week run to the finale and the coveted Disco Ball Trophy.

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