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San Francisco Edges Closer To World Series What Are Chances Of A Major Earthquake?

Michael Sheena's picture

Whenever one thinks about the San Francisco Giants and the World Series, it is very difficult not to think back to 1989 and the World Series Earthquake. Using newly published earthquake research from seismologists at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre we take a look at the 1989 quake and a scenario for a repeat in 2010.

In a new research paper published in the 'New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter' and 'Journal of Indian Geophysics Union' scientists have found a correlation between earthquake counts and when the moon is closest to the Earth (perigee) and when it is Full Moon. The scientists also go on to say that earthquakes tend to occur more during the night than during the day, with the least activity between 3 pm and 4 pm and then ramping up activity until midnight.

San Francisco 2010 World Series Earthquake Looks Less Likely In Light Of New Research

What we have done is applied this information directly to the San Francisco Bay Area to see if this theory holds true and if it does what it would mean for the 2010 World Series. It is very important to note that we are not scientists and that this is strictly done for entertainment purposes.

The Loma Prieta earthquake occurred on October 17, 1989 5:04 p.m. local time. If we research historical records, we find that in 1989 Full Moon was on October 14, and impressively the perigee of the moon on October 15, 1989 was 356,714 km which happened to be the closest perigee for the moon in 1989! So on that date in October we were very close to a Full Moon and the moon was very near its closest perigee to Earth for the year. This scenario for the 1989 Loma Prieta seems to fit perfectly with the theory.

Now let us move forward to 2010. If the World Series begins on Wednesday, October 27, the nearest perigee would be November 3 and the full moon would have already occurred on October 23. Furthermore, the closest perigee in 2010 was all the way back in January of this year. This would not create a "perfect storm" such as it was in 1989 and therefore, in our humble non-scientific opinion, less of a chance for a repeat of a World Series earthquake.

When is the next "perfect storm" set to hit? On March 19, 2011 the closest perigee of 2011 will occur on the same day as a Full Moon. No one knows when the next quake will occur, but to be on the safe side we would stay out of any unstable buildings on March 19, 2011 out of an abundance of caution.

California held a statewide "Great California Shake Out" today at 10:21 AM (PST) to help its emergency services and citizenry prepare for the next "big one" whenever that may be.

The San Francisco Giants have a chance to finish off the Philadelphia Phillies tonight in Game 5 of the NLCS 2010.

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